Following our “from research to results” approach we have worked together with Boston Consulting Group to create a study on the shape of the European Aftermarket in the current decade – till 2030. Now we are proud to present you with the results of our comprehensive study, showcasing the main drivers behind the expected market changes. We also outline the possible strategies for both independent parts manufacturers and distributors to stay on top of the rising market complexity.

The European Aftermarket in 2030

The basis for our study was more than 30 in-depth interviews with aftermarket industry executives and over 600 interviews with operators of service centers across Europe. We have identified the following key trends driving the changes in the current decade:

  1. The car parc is aging and slowly growing
  2. COVID-19 is accelerating changes on the aftermarket
  3. A regulatory battle is brewing
  4. Higher prices for parts
  5. Electrification needs fewer replacement parts
  6. Vehicle connectivity will change the business
  7. Safety technology will reduce replacement part demand
  8. People are driving fewer miles, reducing replacement part demand
  9. Fleets and insurers will control a larger share of the car parc
  10. Automakers are looking to cover more of the aftermarket
  11. Private-label parts offerings are growing
  12. Competition is creating consolidation pressures for all market
  13. Digital services and e-commerce are transforming the industry.
Drivinf factors behind aftermarket growth from 2019-2030

The graph shows the key driving factors for the growth of the European Automotive Aftermarket between 2019 and 2030. (BCG)

The good news is the aftermarket will continue to grow as a whole. But who will benefit the most? The study contains strategic recommendations for automotive parts producers and distributors.

Antti Wolk - Wolk after sales experts

“One of the few constants on the Independent Aftermarket is… change. It is clear to me the current decade will bring even more change to the automotive market. There are 13 main drivers of this change which are described in detail in the report. Electrification and digitalization are surely two of them which accelerated even more due to the COVID pandemic. Both are presenting equal opportunities and challenges to all market players, from vehicle parts manufacturers to distributors and, finally, workshops.

Today it looks like these changes might benefit vehicle manufacturers and OES, more than the independent ones. Yet in the past, the independents have shown their resilience through adapting quickly to the changing business environment. Now the Aftermarket is becoming more diverse and complex. Digitalization will force every market participant to uphold the traditional business model and to invent a new one at the same time.

Nurturing the margin is one of the solutions and this is why in our report we highlight the importance of private labels, as their success on the North American market has proven. Another solution is a data-driven growth strategy, with more emphasis on market research and business intelligence. “Knowledge is power” – it has never been more true than in today’s digital world. At Wolk & Nikolic Aftersales Intelligence experts we are already working on providing you real-time data from the market along with existing AFTER SALES ACCESS monitoring sales of over 6500 distributors around the world. With data sourced directly from the workshops, we can create an aftermarket benchmark to compare your sales to and adjust your local activities accordingly.

I’m looking forward to the 2030 and the new opportunities coming within just a few years from now” – Antti Wolk, Managing Director at Wolk & Nikolic Aftersales Intelligence experts.

The vision of the automotive aftermarket in 2030

A vision on how the automotive aftermarket in Europe will look like in 2030 (BCG)