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As COVID-19 economic shutdown is a storm without precedence, the aftermarket will show its robustness by weathering it. The data collected by Wolk After Sales Experts in German bring the first good news: only 5% of German drivers decided against visiting the workshops because of COVID-19.
Low impact of COVID-19 on the auto service market
The Wolk After Sales Experts endeavored to gauge the demand for car service on the German car owners side. A survey of more than 500 drivers (representative for age, gender, region) has shown that only 5% of them is going to postpone the visit to the workshop because of one of the COVID-19 related issues like “fear of getting infected”, “financial issues”, “being currently infected themselves” or simply their trusted workshop was closed. Further 4% of car drivers decided against it for non-COVID-19 related reasons and finally, 45% simply had no need to visit the workshop as their car didn’t require any repair nor even maintenance.
At the same time, 46% of surveyed car owners did plan to drive to the workshop in April, with 12% having an appointment set already. To put the 46% percentages in April into a perspective, it’s worth comparing them to the data from March 2020 (29,2%) and February 2020 (27,9%)
Market will grow despite COVID-19
46% of car owners who want to visit garages represent full potential on the demand side. Yet some workshops were forced to close due to lockdown, others used short working hours scheme (Ger. “Kurzarbeit”). “Those are valid reasons for some of the demand potential not being translated into orders and invoices in April. Considering and weighting the influence of these factors we have re-calculated the possible output of the garages.
Based on that calculation we predict 24% increase in number of orders in April 2020 as compared to March 2020. It is considerably more than numerous market insiders initially predicted. Also, as per car parc specifics, the service is most likely only delayed and not lost to the workshops completely” – summarizes Zoran Nikolic, Managing Director at Wolk After Sales Experts.
The Wolk After Sales Experts partnered with WESP company from The Netherlands to confirm the above findings. With the ability to track data from over 50 German garages in real-time it is possible to cross-check the car drivers’ declarations against the number of orders coming to the workshops. The first 12 weeks for 2020 were in line with 2019 and 2018 data despite COVID-19 disruptions in full swing already in March.
“Week 13 (last full week of March) noticed a dip in the number of orders due to the first reaction to the introduction of the lockdown measures by the Federal German government.
Even then, the dip didn’t go below 2018 levels while in 2019 spring peak started earlier due to warm weather in Germany. Week 14 only confirmed the rising trend” – adds Zoran Nikolic.
Tyre changing business is the main spring market driver
The Independent Aftermarket business is tuned to the seasons, with two distinct peaks for activity – the spring and autumn one. The former starts with the general rush to change winter tyres into summer ones and then the maintenance works on car begins. It is the traditional time of fixing what doesn’t demand car driver’s immediate attention and at the same time, making sure the car will be ready for holiday’s trip in the summer.
The timing on the spring peak relies heavily on the weather, or more precisely, the transition from winter into proper spring which can vary from year to year and country to country. Another variable is the date of Easter holidays which is different each year.
The full report “The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the auto service market in Germany” can be downloaded for free here -> insights.wolk-aftersales.com/Covid-19/.
